Prescott Market Update, September 2026: Sales Dipped, but Supply Is Tighter

Home sales across the Prescott area dropped 11% in September. If that's the only number you read, it sounds like the market is starting to fall apart. It isn't.

I pulled the full September numbers for Prescott, Prescott Valley, Chino Valley and Dewey-Humboldt. Here's what they say, what I think they mean, and what to do about it whether you're buying or selling. The four towns are not telling the same story.

September's dip, in context

335 homes closed in September, compared to 377 last September. That's a real drop, and I'm not going to dismiss it. But one month hides the bigger picture.

For the year so far, 3,039 homes have closed, compared to 2,834 at this point last year. That's 205 more homes, up about 7%.

The market also cools off every year starting in October and running through January and February. Closings have fallen from the high 300s a month to the low 200s over the winter three years in a row. That's normal for a mountain town with holidays, snow and snowbirds heading out of town.

To tell a normal slowdown from a real problem, I look at pending sales. Those are homes under contract that haven't closed yet, so they're basically next month's closings. In September, 339 homes went under contract, down less than 2% from last year. If the market were falling off a cliff, that is the number that would show it first.

My read: September was a small dip in a good year, not the start of a slide.

Inventory is the story

There are 1,539 homes for sale right now. At this time last year there were 1,698. That's 159 fewer homes for sale, and 205 more homes have sold so far this year. Fewer homes on the market, and more of them selling. That's demand.

Months of supply is how long it would take to sell everything currently listed if not one new home came on the market. Under about 4 months favors sellers, and 6 or more favors buyers. At 4.7, we're in a balanced market. A year ago it was closer to 5.5.

So even in a month where everyone is saying the market is slowing down, supply got tighter, not looser.

Rates cooled things, but I don't expect a crash

I think rates are what moved September. The average 30-year mortgage rate was about 6.5% in July, crossed 7% by the end of September, and was 7.28% as of October 1 (Freddie Mac). On a $400,000 loan, that's roughly $170 more a month than in August. Buyers feel that right away.

So why aren't more people listing? My opinion: Prescott does not work like Phoenix. Our buyers are mostly retirees and people relocating here, people who want to be here. And the people who own homes here aren't under pressure to sell. Nearly 60% of homeowners in this area own their home free and clear.

Most owners aren't forced to sell. When the price doesn't suit them, they don't cut. They wait. That's why I don't believe in a crash in this market. A crash needs forced sellers, and we don't have many.

Area by area

An area-wide average can hide the story, so here are the four towns. Every number in parentheses is last September (2025).

Prescott. Sales fell 27% and the median price slipped almost 3%, so it's the only one of the four where both went down. Days on market held at 51. And 166 new listings came on while only 128 homes sold. More is coming in than going out. At this price, buyers have options, they're comparing, and they're not in a hurry.

Prescott Valley. 100 sales versus 95, and the median price is up almost 14%. Homes are selling in 39 days instead of 49.

Chino Valley. 35 sales, the same as last September, but the median is up to $444,900 from $386,960. Days on market dropped from 64 to 39, which is 25 days faster. Chino has a small number of sales, so one month can swing things. But when homes sell 25 days faster, that's real demand.

Dewey-Humboldt. 20 sales versus 22, and a median of $345,000 compared to $412,000. With only 20 sales, a couple of homes can swing that median, so I'm not reading much into it. What I'm watching is 33 new listings against 20 sales.

Across the whole area, homes are selling in 46 days, faster than last September's 52, even though it's slower than summer, as it always is.

Here's the pattern I see. With rates over 7%, the monthly payment is everything. Buyers shop down in price, and that's why Prescott Valley and Chino Valley keep climbing while Prescott feels the pressure.

The negotiating room

This is the number I think matters most to both buyers and sellers. In July, homes sold for 95.7% of their original asking price. In September, that's 94.3%.

On a $600,000 listing, 5.7% under original asking is about $34,000. In July it was about $26,000. So the room grew by roughly $8,000 in two months.

But look underneath. Homes sold for 97.4% of the price they were last listed at. The gap between those two numbers, about three points, is price reductions.

More than half of the discount is sellers fixing their own pricing mistake and finding out the hard way. That's money that didn't have to be lost.

If you're selling

1. Price it right the first time

Homes priced to the market, with good photos and staging, still sell fast. The others do a specific thing: they sit three or four weeks with nothing, then take a price cut, and by then the listing looks tired and buyers start assuming something's wrong with it. Just over three points on a $600,000 home is $18,600. That's the real cost of starting too high, and you usually pay it plus the extra weeks.

2. Don't assume you have to wait for spring

There are fewer homes competing with yours right now, 1,539 for sale compared to 1,698 a year ago, so your listing gets more of the attention that's out there. And buyers looking in October and November tend to be serious. Most people don't want to move during the holidays, so the ones who are looking have a real reason: a job transfer, a lease running out, a retirement date they've already set. Those are the buyers who actually close.

3. Set your expectations by area

In Prescott, plan on closer to 51 days, sometimes more. In Prescott Valley and Chino Valley, about 39. That's not a reason to panic. It's a reason to price accurately from day one, because in the faster areas a wrong price gets punished quicker.

If you're buying

1. Winter is your window

Fewer buyers, more listings going stale, and the room is already wider than it was in summer. What I see every year around this time is sellers who listed back in the spring still sitting there, watching their Zillow saves stop moving and their showings dry up. That's when they get flexible.

Before you write an offer, look at days on market and price history. A home that's been sitting 50-plus days and has already dropped its price is where you negotiate hard. A fresh, well-priced listing won't give you much, and you shouldn't expect it to.

2. Don't wait for a crash

Fewer homes for sale, fewer new listings, and most owners have no pressure to sell. That last part is the one people miss. This market isn't full of people who have to sell. It's full of people who'd like to, and they'll just wait you out.

A lot of the homes I walk into here are paid off: second homes, retiree homes, owners who've been in them 20 years. I've also talked to many homeowners who tell me they don't have to sell, and when their listing expires, they say they'll wait six months to a year and try again. Waiting for prices to fall is a bet against all of that.

If rates fall, buyers come back and so does the competition. Talk to a lender about your numbers.

3. Know your area

In Prescott Valley and Chino Valley, prices have been rising and homes move in about 39 days. Be ready to move when the right property shows up, because someone else is probably waiting too. In Prescott there's more room: 51 days on market, and 166 listings came on against 128 sales. More coming in than going out means you have time to compare and negotiate.

The bottom line

That's September, the start of the usual seasonal slowdown, tighter supply than a year ago, rising rates doing some of the cooling, and a market that rewards accurate pricing and punishes wishful pricing. Prescott Valley and Chino Valley are still going strong. Prescott needs patience and precision if you're selling.

If you're thinking about selling, let's talk. I offer a free, no pressure strategy session. If you're buying, I'll show you exactly where the room is in the homes you're looking at.

Call or text me at 602-577-0143, or email OscarSellsRealty@gmail.com.

Oscar Romero, RealtyONE Group. Watch the full September market update on my YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/YD6-nlepyh8?si=ejbJ1vYBcQji80Ut

Sources: Prescott Area MLS and FBS, data as of October 7, 2026; Freddie Mac weekly rate survey. Information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.